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HomeUncategorizedEven Chance World Will Breach 1.5C Warming Within 5 Years, Says UN

Even Chance World Will Breach 1.5C Warming Within 5 Years, Says UN

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According to the United Nations, there is a chance that global temperatures will temporarily exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in one of the next five years.

As per AFP, countries agreed in 2015 to mitigate climate change to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius above levels measured between 1850 and 1900, and to 1.5 degrees Celsius if possible.

"The chance of global near-surface temperature exceeding 1.5C above pre-industrial levels at least one year between 2022 and 2026 is about as likely as not," the UN's World Meteorological Organization said in an annual climate update.

The World Meteorological Organization put the probability at 48 percent, and said it was rising over time.

Over a multi-year period, an average temperature of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels would breach the Paris aspirational target.

According to the WMO, there is a 93 percent chance that at least one year between 2022 and 2026 will be the warmest on record, displacing 2016 from the top spot.

The probability of the five-year temperature average in 2022-2026 being higher than the previous five years (2017-2021) was also put at 93%.

"This study shows -- with a high level of scientific skill -- that we are getting measurably closer to temporarily reaching the lower target of the Paris Agreement," said WMO chief Petteri Taalas.
"The 1.5C figure is not some random statistic. It is rather an indicator of the point at which climate impacts will become increasingly harmful for people and indeed the entire planet."

The 1.5°C target set by the Paris Agreement refers to long-term warming, but as global temperatures rise, temporary exceedances are expected to become more common.

"A single year of exceedance above 1.5C does not mean we have breached the iconic threshold of the Paris Agreement, but it does reveal that we are edging ever closer to a situation where 1.5C could be exceeded for an extended period," said Leon Hermanson, of Britain's Met Office national weather service, who led the report.

According to initial WMO data, the average global temperature in 2021 was 1.11 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

According to the report, global temperatures were cooled by back-to-back La Nina events at the beginning and end of 2021.

This, however, was only a brief respite from the long-term trend of global warming.

La Nina is a large-scale cooling of surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean that happens every two to seven years on average.

The effect has widespread effects on weather around the world, usually in the opposite direction of the Southern Oscillation cycle’s El Nino warming phase.

According to the WMO, any development of an El Nino event would immediately fuel temperatures, as it did in 2016.

Between 2022 and 2026, the annual mean global near-surface temperature is expected to be between 1.1 and 1.7 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels.

The five-year mean has only a 10% chance of exceeding the 1.5C threshold.

"For as long as we continue to emit greenhouse gases, temperatures will continue to rise," said Taalas.
"And alongside that, our oceans will continue to become warmer and more acidic, sea ice and glaciers will continue to melt, sea level will continue to rise and our weather will become more extreme.
"Arctic warming is disproportionately high and what happens in the Arctic affects all of us."

Meanwhile, compared to the 1991-2020 average, precipitation patterns for 2022 predict drier conditions in southwestern Europe and southwestern North America, as well as wetter conditions in northern Europe, the Sahel, northeastern Brazil, and Australia.

REFERENCE: Asharq Al-Awsat

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